The suggestion by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Yakubu Dogara, that the proposed 2018 census be postponed until after the 2019 general election has generated controversy in the polity, writes ADEBIYI ADEDAPO
population census is essential in the development of every nation, as it determines the population density in different locations and guides government in its economic planning.
Government is expected to determine the number of people in a particular location at a given time, so as to provide social amenities, based on the population statistics.
Census, therefore, helps the government to know the total number of people in the country, their sex, age, as well as the geographic and occupational distribution of the population.
However, population census in Nigeria has, over the years, generated political tension and apprehension. Accuracy of population census in Nigeria has been bedeviled by a number of factors, ranging from under-counting for fear of tax remittance and over-counting for political gains.
The first attempt to conduct a post-independence census in Nigeria in 1962 was cancelled after much controversy and allegations of over-counting in many areas. The second attempt in 1963 was officially accepted, but could not escape being discredited by allegations of inaccuracy and manipulation in favour of regional and local interests.
Indeed, the official figure of 55.6million from the 1963 census, was said to be inconsistent with the census of a decade earlier, because it implied a virtually impossible annual growth rate of 5.8 per cent.
After the Nigerian Civil War, an attempt was made to hold a census in 1973, but the results were cancelled in the face of repeated controversy. After that, the 1991 census and the last in 2006, which put Nigeria’s population at approximately 140million were accepted, but not widely.
A former chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC), Chief Festus Odimegwu, identified the problems responsible for the failure of past censuses and expressed the determination to bring about “a change for the better”.
He pointedly stated that all the previous censuses were totallyflawed and called for an amendment of existing laws to make the 2016 census which has now been postponed a success.
Odimegwu was queried for daring to make such comments, even though those who tore into him could not disprove his claims.
However, following the postponement of the 2006 census for the second time, the director- general of NPC, Dr. Ghaji Bello, confirmed that the commission would hold the census in 2018 if necessary logistics are provided.
Also, Bello revealed that the proposed 2018 census would cost the nation an estimated N272billion.
“Ordinarily, it ought to have a cycle of its own and that cycle should be five years or 10 years. We should have conducted the last census in 2016 but for a variety of reasons outside the control of the population commission, we were unable to do it. In 2015, there was a general election and, because of the preparations towards that election, our ability to be mobilised to move with full gear for the 2016 count was hindered.
“Secondly, once the election was concluded and there was a new government in place, that government also has to get its foot on ground before it can move forward.
“No sooner had it started to settle down than there was the issue of recession, collapse of the price of crude in the international market and, due to a variety of reasons, it just didn’t happen.
“To meet the UN 10-year bench-mark, Bello said that the commission was working for a constitutional amendment that would allow for a scheduled conduct of the census,” Bello said.
Chairman of the Senate Committee on National Population Commission (NPC), Senator Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi, had, in October 2016, stated that 2018 was a critical year to hold that exercise, because a year after that, the election would kick in.
“I think, for so many reasons, the two should not be contemplated to happen the same year. In fact, the data, information that INEC would require to plot its graph accurately in the exercise will certainly arise from the 2018 census,” he said.
But the Speaker of the House of Representative, Hon. Yakubu Dogara, expressed a contrary view, as he called on those clamouring for the conduction of the population census in 2018 to exercise patience till after the 2019 elections, when there would be no political pressure to manipulate its outcome.
Dogara argued that conducting the population census in an election year may generate unrealistic results and, therefore, advised that the next administration should conduct the census at the beginning of its tenure when there isn’t so much at stake.
“I won’t advise anyone to conduct the national census in 2018. I said it before that, if we are not going to achieve it in 2017, then we should just forget it until after 2019.
“If you conduct census at the niche of elections, there will be so much pressure, crisis and the lure for people to manipulate the figures for political reasons, such that the agency cannot even commission with. So, it is better for a fresh administration to conduct this exercise from the beginning of that administration’s stay in office, when we do not have any pressure of elections in sight. Then, we may have something more realistic, but I can bet that, if the census is conducted in 2018, the outcome will be doubtable.
“Seriously, because I know who we are and the kind of litigations, backlashes, the pressure and all that. We don’t need that now, to be candid. We have so many challenges; let’s empower the agencies to keep building on the blocks that they will leverage on in the future, in order to do the exercise but, doing it in 2018, honestly, is nothing I would advocate [for].”
Similarly, a don, Dr Austine Nwaeze, backed Dogara’s stance.
Nwaeze, who lectures Political Economics at the Pan Atlantic University, Lekki, Lagos, told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Lagos that the census, planned for 2018, would be an exercise in futility.
“I will suggest that the national census be held in 2020 or 2021 for a fair exercise. It should be extended by few years after the elections, because of our peculiarities as a people. I support the people who are calling for the suspension, because we should learn from the mistakes of the past.
“Since the early ‘60s, our elections have been controversial. The exercise has always pitched one section of the country against the others and, almost, negated the purpose of the scheme,” he said.
He reasoned that postponing the exercise until after the election would enable the government to plan and prepare better for the exercise.
Nwaeze said the suggestion to postpone the census was in order, as it would not disrupt the current economic recovery plan.
In a swift reaction to Dogara’s position, the National Population Commission (NPC) said that it was still hoping to conduct the proposed population census in 2018, while it awaited a presidential proclamation.
The commission noted that the Speaker was simply expressing his personal opinion on the proposed census.
“Dogara’s comment is his personal opinion and not an official position. We are still waiting for the president to make a proclamation,” the commission stated.
Also, the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) warned that moves to postpone the census from the due date would amount to altering the laws without a formal constitutional amendment.
The acting national publicity secretary of the party, Hon. Bernard Mikko, cautioned that the proposed census not be politicised.
“The issue of census should not be politicised. Under our statutes, it should be conducted every 10 years. Any attempt to postpone the census from the due date will amount to altering the laws without a formal constitutional amendment. We should abide by our laws for positive development.”
In the same vein, the Pan Yoruba socio-cultural organisation, Afenifere Renewal Group, yesterday, urged Speaker Dogara to “stop relying on assumptions and embrace” tested realities.
Spokesman of the ARG, Kunle Famoriyo, stated that the group has noticed Dogara’s “proclivity to bully his way in a dictatorial manner, despite heading a significant democratic institutions.
“Dogara knows quite well that democracy is about consultation and dialogue but, like a military despot, prefers to shun these democratic tenets before seeking to impose his agenda on the nation,” Famoriyo noted.
Afenifere observed that, recently, Dogara had taken to speaking “on critical and sensitive national issues and expressing views which, according to available records, have not been debated in the House.
“As the Speaker, his views should only reflect what has been thoroughly debated. Such undemocratic attitude is the reason Nigeria continues to fail at evolving a true and genuine nationhood. If census should not hold as proposed in 2018, it should be a national consensus and not the working assumption of a few leaders who pretend to know what is best for the country,” the group stated.
Similarly, the apex northern socio-cultural organisation, Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), cautioned the Speaker against making statements that could “over-heat” the polity.
ACF spokesman, Muhammad Ibrahim Biu, said: “Nigeria as a nation should not be afraid of political challenges; rather, it should device a means to overcome them. Our politicians should restraint themselves from making statements that would unnecessarily over-heat the polity. The NPC must put in place all necessary logistics to ensure free and fair national census.”
Also, former governor of old Kaduna State and an elder statesman, Balarabe Musa, condemned the call for postponement, saying: “We must abide by the constitution of Nigeria. If the constitution says so, [there is] nothing Speaker Dogara and the legislature can do.”
Nevertheless, it is important to note that Dogara’s suggestions did not include cancellation of the national census, but further postponement to ensure a fair process this time.
Nigeria has a long history of mismanaged national population censuses which has mocked national planning efforts. Therefore, political leaders should see population size as a measure of the extent of their responsibility and not as a bargaining power in the sharing of the national cake.