EMEKA ODOM, xrays the intent behind the defections of some prominent Igbo politicians from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
After the 2015 general elections, some pundits upon evaluation of the voting pattern of the presidential election, especially in the south-east, opined that it had become very obvious that the All Progressives Congress (APC), campaign machinery need to do more work to deepen it’s roots in the region to ensure its acceptability by the people of the area.
They also posited that the group that notwithstanding the voting pattern and the popularity or otherwise of the then General Muhammad Buhari (GMB) and his presidential quest as exemplified in the number of votes secured in the area, the APC and GMB had the greatest and best opportunity to make an inroad into that geo-political territory which seems to be the APC’s weakest zone.
The political strategy predicted envisaged at the time were two-fold:
First, was for the APC and GMB, upon his assumption into office to embark on the realisation of those popular infrastructural projects that the then out-going government of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) could not achieve, i.e. the second Niger Bridge, fixing of the Enugu – Port-Harcourt express way, fixing of the Onitsha – Enugu express way and dualisation of the Owerri – Umuahia road. Others are expansion of the Onitsha sea port and commencement of full operations at the Enugu International airport, among others. They were projected because these are infrastructures that are at the heart of every igbo man. Any government that fixes these projects and more, will win their heart easily, any day.
Secondly, analysts advanced that the APC and the president-elect, after swearing in ceremony, needed to launch serious political machinery that will draw more heavy weight politicians and leaders of thought to the party before the next general election in 2019.
During the last presidential election and immediately after, there were only three most notable heavy weight politicians from the south-east in the APC. They were the incumbent governor of Imo state, Owelle rochas Okorocha; the governor of old Abia state and former chairman of the defunct All Nigerian People’s Party (ANPP), Chief Ogbonnaya Onu and the former senator, Chief Chris Ngige.
Today, a lot has changed, a good number of notable politicians of the South-east extraction have moved to the ruling party. From Senator Andy Ubah, Chief Orji Uzo Kalu, Senator Ken Nnamani to Mr. Sullivan Chime and a host of others. These characters have dumped their former party, the PDP, to embrace the ruling APC, they have all cited the unending leadership imbroglio within the party as reason for their decampment. True as this may seem on the surface, a closer look as the scenario may reveal more intrinsic reasons for these political movements. A critical analysis of the foregoing may produce three cardinal motivations for the recent spate of decampment. Suggestively,
these are: 2019 vice presidential possibilities; 2023 South-east presidency, possibilities and placement and thirdly, infrastructural development reasons.
Although it may seem that some other hidden agenda in the emerging scenario as real reasons for the decampment, however, the above deductions are crystal clear.
Looking at it from the perspective of 2023 South-east presidency, the possibilities and proper placement, one cannot dig deep before seeing the political ambitious and calculations on possible achievement options of these politicians.
As it stands now, President Muhammad Buhari is the incumbent and going by Nigeria and African precedence, he is as good as running for a second term, his party would gladly offer him the platform without any challenge if he so wishes to. Given that as it is, most political pundits insinuate that after his second term in 2023, the South-east would be in a solid position to canverse and argue to be supported by the other regions to produce the nation’s number one citizen. If that sails through, which way, these other persons who are now decamping would only have placed themselves at a vantage position to have a shot at the coveted office, as it’s a general knowledge that, given the opportunity, every Igbo man will like to contest for the office of the president of Nigeria. It is believed that when the time comes priority may be given to those who have spent a considerable amount of time in the party and not those who just moved to the party. Besides that, since the APC is still relatively shallow-based in the region, and will require hard work and time to entrench itself like the PDP, it is possibly the calculation of those who are presently decamping that between now and 2023 it would have afforded them a good time to build a solid base and support structure in order to stand a good point come 2013.
Secondly, another possible reason for the decampment is 2019 vice presidential opportunity and comparative individual advantage. As things are presently constituted, if for any reason whatsoever the incumbent president does not re-contest (which is also a possibility) the arena will be thrown open to several candidates, possibly of northern extraction. Under this scenario, whoever emerges as the flag bearer may look at the direction of the South-east for his choice of a running mate, and with more notable politicians declaring for the ruling party, any of them could get the slot. Then for people like senator Andy Uba, his reasons for decamping to APC appear very obvious, his ambition to govern Anambra state has never been hidden. With the ever depleting strength of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in Anambra state and the protracted leadership tussle and internal wranglings and acrimony in the Anambra state PDP, Uba seems convinced that his dreams may be much more easier fulfilled in the APC than any other party, hence his cross carpeting
Thirdly, another possible reason for the current state of decampment may be hinged on regional developmental issues of “national cake”. A diagnostic analysis of the trend of things along the line of inclusive leadership style of President Muhammad Buhari, especially in the early days of his administration showed clearly that the South-east as a political block lost out on most critical appointments and political placements. As a major ethnic group ranked equal in political, economic and social indices along with her contemporaries – hausa/fulani and Yoruba, the South-east lost out completely in every ramification. Apart from positions and appointments mandated by the constitution like ministerial slots, the region was nowhere to be found, from the security architecture to the other very sensitive and important positions of prominence, the southeast was nowhere. Most political pundits interpreted this as a backlash of the region’s hardline stand and rejection of APC. For instance, in what many public affairs analysts pointed out as normal and conventional, most of the critical appointments in the security and defense ambit are usually balanced to include most geo political regions. But the present government does not conform to that convention. Therefore, it could be a political strategy to attract the presence of the government to the region in terms of appointments into prominent positions in government. Besides, the government is already paying attention to some of the critical infrastructures in the region. For instance, the Enugu – Port Harcourt express way is already receiving attention, the Onitsha – Enugu express way is equally receiving attention. From the pronouncements of the transport minister, Chief Chibuike Amaechi, the Onitsha Sea Port is in the immediate plans of the APC government. Conclusively, come 2019 general elections, the voting patterns are likely to go a long way different from that of 2015.